Maliha bint Hamed Abdullah Al-Abdali

Vol. 17 | No. 2, 1447 - 2025

Abstract

This study aims to use remote sensing technology to derive information layers, showing land use, land Cover (LULC), and changes north of Mecca city during four periods between 2005 - 2020. In preparation for achieving second objective in spatial modeling to simulate growth urban and change land covers in study area between 2020 - 2050. The study used unsupervised classify to deriving land covers from images (Spot, Sentinel), and land covers classification to five classifications: urban area, Vegetation, Roads, Sediments and rocks.

The results of analysis and spatial modeling showed urban growth in areas vegetation, sediment and rocks between 2005 - 2020, and predicted continuous pattern of urban growth until 2050 in the study area. Simulation results using CA-Markov model confirmed increase Built-up areas from 13.5 km2 in 2020, to 19.1 km2 in 2030, 24.3 km2 in 2040, 29.8 km2 in 2050. Also, simulation results using Markov Chain model confirm increase Built-up in study area from 13.5 km2 in 2020, to 21.1 km2 in 2030, 26.9 km2 in 2040 and 31 km2 in 2050.

Keywords

Land covers, Mecca City, GIS, Remote Sensing, Markov model, Change analysis